2020年随感

2020年随感汇总，原发自微信．

人物小评 刘铭传

刘铭传是首任台湾巡抚，治台不到十年。连横(台湾通史作者)说台湾有史以来，治土有方之官员一曰陈永华(陈近南)，二曰刘铭传。我却觉得陈近南不能和刘公相比。

刘出身淮军，平捻起家，本和台湾毫无关系。但在他之下，抗法，建省，修铁路，台湾十年走过中国五十年的路。从这个角度出发，别说陈近南，就是曾左李也不行。曾左李一心想着做直隶总督，总理大臣这样位极人臣，却不料世界大势和中国国情不是他们的才能所搞的掂的，还不如象刘一样，踏踏实实做好一方守土之臣。

呜呼刘公，假使他平捻之后立刻治台，则牡丹社事件不会发生，台湾终不会割让。退一步假使甲午之战大清能打平，甚至小负，割台顺延到日俄战争，再给刘公十年，台湾人民今日也不会和大陆有如此疏离感。

台湾大选揭晓有感

关于野味

最近网络上对食用野味已经妖魔化了。我一直认为，食用野味，只要不是珍稀保护动物，就完全是个人选择的问题。我不吃，但我不能禁止别人吃。这么想吧，人类最早的职业就是猎人，对野味的妖魔化 ，就是对我们祖先妖魔化。再换个角度，野生三文鱼你吃没吃，和野味有本质区别吗？

你说，这病毒怎么办？野味，当然可能有比较多的病原体。但以当前发现的武汉新型冠状病毒为例，它不可能扛过任何合理的烹饪手段。任何有理智的人也不会抓一头蝙蝠生吃了吧。真正有问题的，是野味的活体饲养和长距离运输，这样方便了大城市人民尝鲜，但这些为了满足城市人民尝鲜的野味饲养者，运输者，交易者就免不了近距离接触野生动物，从而感染未知病毒。

我呼吁，做一个有荣誉的猎人，自己猎杀自己吃。最多少量吃不了的做成腊肉馈赠亲友。政府应该禁的是野味饲养和运输。这不仅对卫生有极大的帮助，对于防止外来物种破坏生态也是至关重要的。

渔村

从前海边有个渔村。

天色不好，有经验的渔民知道，要起风了。一群人聚在海滩上叽叽喳喳。村长走过来说:

别吵，我去京城找大师来望一望这风!

大师很快来了，他仔细望了望风，心里估计要刮十级风。但看着乡亲们想，这帮人没见过世面，别吓坏了他们。就说:

还好，要刮八级风，和你们以前见过的大风也没什么不同．

大师私下里和村长说，风虽然就八级，但我们还是要上十级风的防护工作，求个心安。然后，大师回京城了。

大师走后，村长心里想，十级防护工程也不老少钱呢，九级防护，应该也够了。就找了工头来做九级防护。

工头拿着九级的钱，心里想，风就八级，我就做八级防护。反正村长也看不出来九级防护和八级防护的区别。

风越来越大了。有经验的渔民觉得苗头不对，还在海滩上叽叽喳喳。村长走过，大喝一声:

大师说了，风就八级。你们再妖言惑众，我就把你们都关起来!

渔民一哄而散。不久，十二级台风登陆。

微信链接

这幅图大家都很熟悉了吧。

很多人常常在微信聊天，或者朋友圈里分享一些链接。但是人们一点，就成了这个样子。这俗称被河蟹了。有些懂一点技术的人把它叫做404。但这真的不是404: resource not found.

在微信界面里没有任何地方可以显示，或者复制到粘贴板这些分享链接的真实URL. 所有的链接都指向weixin.qq.com服务器，然后再由服务器做重定向。这个重定向服务会根据一些原则，屏蔽部分链接，就成了这个样子。

微信鼓励无原则无后果的信息分享，再由微信做无害化处理。作为用户，我们赋予了微信极大的权力。管控了网络入口后，理论上微信除了做数据采集，内容过滤之外，还能做很多很多的事情，发挥你的想象吧。

那些愿意牺牲安全来获得方便的人既不配得到安全，也得不到方便．

传播聊天记录

最近看了不少微信聊天记录，截图什么的．各种各样的小道消息都是从这个途径传出来的．截屏，转聊天记录的事情，老实说我也干过．但是，这合法吗？

从一方面来说，既然你在微信聊天上说了话，就等于是放弃了相关的隐私权和著作权．腾讯可以任意使用，别人一样可以任意使用，包括传播．但我仍然觉得，传播聊天记录不道德：

• 通常没有征得原作者同意．很多情况下，你甚至不知道原作者是谁．
• 在原理上已经是断章取义了．
• 消息的下游无法溯源取信．

唯一符合道德的例外是当传播的下游已经能接触到原始的聊天信息的时候，例如：向群内的某些人发私信提醒某人曾经说过某些话等等．如果你真想扩散传播的话，请用自己的话，从自己的角度来转述．

我希望在这个自媒体的时代，想说话的人都能堂堂正正地说话，让真正编造谣言的人无所遁形．

肺炎南北差异

肺炎病死率出现明显南北方差异

如果做大致南北分界，即河南陕西全省算北方，安徽江苏全省算南方的话，湖北不算，截止今天，全国肺炎共确诊11019人，死亡43人。但南方诸省确诊7577，死亡17，病死率千分之2.2，北方诸省确诊3442，死亡26，病死率千分之7.6，呈现明显差异。举例而言，湖北北方邻省河南死7人，南方邻省湖南死1人。北京死3人，上海仅死一人。更不用说最南的广东将近一千二百确诊，仅死一人，最北的黑龙江区区360确诊，竟死8人!

这病毒怕热好冷? 怕湿好干?

房间里的大象

只要明白体制内思维的逻辑应该不难判断这是问题可能出现在哪里：看齐的那个方向需要稳定压倒一切，一切可能引起不稳定的信息都从严，用词也会精挑细选，再加上一级级过滤，一级级“负责”，最后谁都不负责。而看齐方向需要严控疫情的时候，各种一级响应、“战时状态”,封闭管理，打砸麻将桌就会争先恐后，鸡血满满战斗力爆棚。

说起来都没错，因为都是在“贯彻落实”

Digital Minimalism

Cal Newport:

Social networks, and to a lesser extent smart phones and mobile apps in general, are designed to make money for their authors by monetizing your attention. The companies behind them aren't opposed to making your life better if that helps hold your attention, but it's not their primary goal, nor is it clear if they know how to improve your life in any meaningful way. They do know, extremely well, how to exploit human psychology to keep you returning to their product.

Newport primarily blames three things:

• the ubiquitous availability of mobile devices,
• the addictive power of intermittent positive reinforcement,
• the exploitation of the human desire for social approval.

On communication

• If your words can be perceived in different ways, they'll be understood in the way which does the most harm.
• "Now" is often the wrong time to say what just popped into your head. It's better to let it filter it through the sieve of time. What's left is the part worth saying.
• If you want an answer, you have to ask a question. People typically have a lot to say, but they'll volunteer little.
• Urgency is overrated, ASAP is poison.
• Where you put something, and what you call it, matters. Lead with the most important information. Keep in mind that many technical systems truncate long text or titles.
• Great news delivered on the heels of bad news makes both bits worse. The bad news feels like it's being buried, the good news feels like it's being injected to change the mood. Be honest with each by giving them adequate space.

Destructive triangle

In the 1960s, Stephen Karpman has thought of a model of human communication that maps the destructive interactions which occur between people. This map is known as the drama triangle. The three roles are:

• The Persecutor. I'm right. It's all your fault. The Persecutor acts out criticism, accusation, and condemnation. Their behavior is controlling, blaming, shaming, oppressive, hurtful, angry, authoritarian, superior. They know everything better, they laugh about others, bully, shame, or belittle them. The Persecutor discounts others' value, looking down on them.
  
• The Victim. I'm blameless. Poor me. The Victim feels not accepted by others, oppressed, helpless, hopeless, powerless, ashamed, inferior. The Victim thinks they are unable or not good enough to solve problems on their own. The Victim discounts themselves.
  
• The Rescuer. I'm good. Let me help you! The Rescuer is a person who has unsolicited and unlimited advice concerning the Victim's problems. They think for the Victim, and comfort them, generally without having been asked to do so. The Rescuer acts seemingly to help the Victim but rescuing mostly helps them to feel better themselves, as it allows them to ignore their own anxieties, worries, or shortcomings. The Rescuer needs a Victim to rescue, effectively keeping the Victim powerless. The Rescuer discounts others' abilities to think and act for themselves, looking down on them.

Borisov 彗星

2019年年底，一颗彗星闯入了天文学家的眼底。以发现者命名的这颗彗星，是史上第一颗确认来自太阳系之外的彗星。要知道，星空中星星虽然多，但相互之间隔的非常远，一个星际之间的小彗星要闯入太阳系内层不知要在无边黑暗的星际飞行多少年，百万年？千万年？上亿年？我不知道如何估计。

不久的之后，Borisov 彗星就要离我们远去了。它悄悄的来，正如它悄悄的走。它虽然没有带走什么东西，却把很大一部分质量留在了太阳系。来自黑暗的它的主要成分是一氧化碳冰，绝对温度三十度就会蒸发。离太阳百亿公里的距离就足够把它烤热，这些蒸发的一氧化碳和其他物质形成了这灿烂的彗尾。

没有谁能全身而退，你的一部分已埋在这春天里。

On making changes

You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. -- Buckminster Fuller

Postel's law

Be conservative in what you send, and liberal in what you accept. -- Jon Postel

Postel是互联网的先驱，他的这句话本意是一个通信设备为了更好地与别家设备联通，需要保持的原则。在人际交往中其实也一样：你说的话需要保守一点，避免造成歧义，但你需要能多听多理解不同的声音，接受分歧。

可惜，今天的网民常常在一个很小的圈子里接受很窄的信息，然后又试图把自己的思想做一些大而无当的扩展再散布出去，吸引眼球，试图做一个网红。这就是和互联网的本意背道而驰了。

How the American Idiot Made America Unlivable

Very biased article, soft paywall, ... But beutifully written

How the American Idiot Made America Unlivable

You won’t not just be that scientist, researcher, journalist, novelist ... You will work, for a pittance, and then die. You’ll make billionaires trillionaires — and demagogue dictators — along the way. But you?

You’re expandable, disposable, nobody.

On Simlicity

Simplicity is a great virtue but it requires hard work to achieve it and education to appreciate it. And to make matters worse: complexity sells better. -- Dijkstra

On Culture

Culture is a learned result of a group experience.

There comes a point in the history of an organization whose members have successfully addressed particular tasks over and over again, when the same task arises and the group doesn’t even pause to ask explicitly. It is when these methods of problem-solving are adopted by assumption, rather than explicit debate and decision, that they become the culture of the organization. -- Edgar Schein, Organizational Culture and Leadership (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1988)